https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Index en-au 5 https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:50162 50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.]]> Wed 05 Jul 2023 16:03:34 AEST ]]> https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:51249 Mon 28 Aug 2023 12:29:36 AEST ]]> https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:43600 Bactrocera tryoni (Qfly) into areas without permanent Qfly populations present serious threats to the Australian and New Zealand horticultural industries. Identifying the origins of recent incursions will help reduce future threats by enabling the targeting of problematic incursion routes for more stringent quarantine protocols. Here we present an analytical framework based on supervised and unsupervised machine learning to identify the origins and recent population history of incursion individuals. Our framework is based on a recently developed reference dataset of genome-wide markers for 35 Qfly populations from across the ranges of Qfly and the related taxon Bactrocera aquilonis (NTfly). We apply our framework to recent incursions into New Zealand, Tasmania and South Australia. Two distinct Qfly sources were identified for incursions into New Zealand (total 18 individuals), one from the east coast of Australia and one from New Caledonia. All eight recent incursion collections analysed (total 85 individuals) from South Australia and Tasmania most likely originated from just one of six clusters of populations in our reference database, Qfly from the east coast of Australia. None were found to originate from clusters containing NTfly or Qfly/NTfly hybrids in the Northern Territory or north Western Australia. Several, but not all, of the collections showed signals of small founding population size and two Tasmanian collections each included individuals apparently derived from three different sources within the east coast of Australia. In total, several more incursion events were detected than previously known, although some were founded by relatively few individuals.]]> Mon 26 Sep 2022 15:19:57 AEST ]]> https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:49485 Fri 19 May 2023 09:21:02 AEST ]]>